SexyPöxyt 2–3 Inter Turku II: Result & Stats

SexyPöxyt

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Inter Turku II

7/13/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 18Laaksolahden tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SexyPöxyt15%

×Draw17%

Inter Turku II68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SexyPöxytExpected goals in this matchInter Turku II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.62

SexyPöxyt

1.15

Inter Turku II

2.62

Inter Turku II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

2.80

2.43

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

SexyPöxyt

1.00

Inter Turku II

2.80

allows per match

SexyPöxyt

2.43

Inter Turku II

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SexyPöxyt+0.00on par

Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SexyPöxyt ↓

Inter Turku II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

SexyPöxyt or draw

32%

SexyPöxyt or Inter Turku II

83%

Draw or Inter Turku II

85%

Winning margin

SexyPöxyt wins by 2+

5%

Inter Turku II wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

SexyPöxyt 1+ goals

68%

SexyPöxyt 2+ goals

32%

SexyPöxyt 3+ goals

11%

Inter Turku II 1+ goals

93%

Inter Turku II 2+ goals

73%

Inter Turku II 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

SexyPöxyt (draw refunded)

18%

Inter Turku II (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SexyPöxyt at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

Inter Turku II away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SexyPöxyt attack 1.00 + Inter Turku II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Inter Turku II attack 2.80 + SexyPöxyt defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

SexyPöxyt scores more

15%

level

17%

Inter Turku II scores more

68%

Inter Turku II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff