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Inter Turku II vs SexyPöxyt — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Inter Turku II
Inter Turku II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
SexyPöxyt
SexyPöxyt
5/12/2024Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 7Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Inter Turku II77%
×Draw12%
SexyPöxyt11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku II
3.60
SexyPöxyt
1.37

Inter Turku II creates 163% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Inter Turku II
4.30
SexyPöxyt
1.24

allows per match

Inter Turku II
1.50
SexyPöxyt
2.90

finishing

Inter Turku II+0.00on par
SexyPöxyt+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku II ↓

SexyPöxyt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Inter Turku II or draw
89%
Inter Turku II or SexyPöxyt
88%
Draw or SexyPöxyt
23%

Winning margin

Inter Turku II wins by 2+
59%
SexyPöxyt wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Inter Turku II 1+ goals
97%
Inter Turku II 2+ goals
86%
Inter Turku II 3+ goals
67%
SexyPöxyt 1+ goals
75%
SexyPöxyt 2+ goals
40%
SexyPöxyt 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku II (draw refunded)
88%
SexyPöxyt (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku II at home — creates 4.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

SexyPöxyt away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku II attack 4.30 + SexyPöxyt defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 3.60

SexyPöxyt attack 1.24 + Inter Turku II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Inter Turku II scores more
77%
level
12%
SexyPöxyt scores more
11%

Inter Turku II at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Turku II vs SexyPöxyt

Inter Turku II beat SexyPöxyt 4-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.