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Sevlievo vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
3 – 3
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
11/22/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 16Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sevlievo74%
×Draw16%
Parva atomna10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
2.50
Parva atomna
0.79

Sevlievo creates 216% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 47 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
90%
Sevlievo or Parva atomna
84%
Draw or Parva atomna
26%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
52%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
92%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
71%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
45%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
55%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
19%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
88%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.50

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sevlievo scores more
74%
level
16%
Parva atomna scores more
10%

Sevlievo at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevlievo vs Parva atomna

Sevlievo and Parva atomna drew 3-3 in Third League - Northwest on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sevlievo.