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Parva atomna vs Sevlievo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Parva atomna
Parva atomna
CANC
15:00
Sevlievo
Sevlievo
5/24/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 25Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Parva atomna32%
×Draw25%
Sevlievo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parva atomna
1.28
Sevlievo
1.52

Sevlievo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 94 away

creates per match

Parva atomna
1.57
Sevlievo
1.62

allows per match

Parva atomna
1.41
Sevlievo
0.99

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par
Sevlievo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Sevlievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw
57%
Parva atomna or Sevlievo
75%
Draw or Sevlievo
68%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+
14%
Sevlievo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals
72%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
37%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
14%
Sevlievo 1+ goals
78%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
45%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)
43%
Sevlievo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Sevlievo away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Sevlievo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sevlievo attack 1.62 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Parva atomna scores more
32%
level
25%
Sevlievo scores more
43%

Sevlievo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Parva atomna host Sevlievo

May 24, 2020: Parva atomna take on Sevlievo in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Parva atomna host Sevlievo at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.