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Sevlievo vs Juventus Malchika — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
3/2/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 17Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Sevlievo79%
×Draw13%
Juventus Malchika8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
2.79
Juventus Malchika
0.77

Sevlievo creates 262% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 65 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Juventus Malchika
0.80

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Juventus Malchika
3.17

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Juventus Malchika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
92%
Sevlievo or Juventus Malchika
87%
Draw or Juventus Malchika
21%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
58%
Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
94%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
76%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
52%
Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
54%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
18%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
91%
Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.79

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Sevlievo scores more
79%
level
13%
Juventus Malchika scores more
8%

Sevlievo at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevlievo vs Juventus Malchika

Juventus Malchika beat Sevlievo 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sevlievo.