Juventus Malchika 2–2 Sevlievo: Result & Stats

Juventus Malchika

FT

2 – 2

Sevlievo

5/17/2025

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 25Stadion Georgi Karchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Juventus Malchika26%

×Draw23%

Sevlievo51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus MalchikaExpected goals in this matchSevlievo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.82

Juventus Malchika

1.23

Sevlievo

1.82

Sevlievo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 94 away

1.48

creates per match

1.62

2.02

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Juventus Malchika

1.48

Sevlievo

1.62

allows per match

Juventus Malchika

2.02

Sevlievo

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Sevlievo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Sevlievo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw

49%

Juventus Malchika or Sevlievo

77%

Draw or Sevlievo

74%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+

11%

Sevlievo wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals

71%

Juventus Malchika 2+ goals

35%

Juventus Malchika 3+ goals

13%

Sevlievo 1+ goals

84%

Sevlievo 2+ goals

54%

Sevlievo 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)

34%

Sevlievo (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Sevlievo away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Sevlievo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sevlievo attack 1.62 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more

26%

level

23%

Sevlievo scores more

51%

Sevlievo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Juventus Malchika 2–2 Sevlievo

Juventus Malchika and Sevlievo drew 2-2 in Third League - Northwest on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Karchev in Malchika.

Juventus Malchika vs Sevlievo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Third League - Northwest: Juventus Malchika 2–2 Sevlievo