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Sevlievo vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
10 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Drenovets
Drenovets
8/20/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 3Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sevlievo75%
×Draw16%
Drenovets9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
2.49
Drenovets
0.75

Sevlievo creates 232% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
91%
Sevlievo or Drenovets
84%
Draw or Drenovets
25%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
53%
Drenovets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
92%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
71%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
45%
Drenovets 1+ goals
53%
Drenovets 2+ goals
17%
Drenovets 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
89%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.49

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sevlievo scores more
75%
level
16%
Drenovets scores more
9%

Sevlievo at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Sevlievo 10–0 Drenovets

Sevlievo beat Drenovets 10-0 in Third League - Northwest on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sevlievo.