Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Drenovets vs Sevlievo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Drenovets
Drenovets
FT
0 – 0
Sevlievo
Sevlievo
3/11/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 18Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Drenovets35%
×Draw24%
Sevlievo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenovets
1.48
Sevlievo
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 94 away

creates per match

Drenovets
1.96
Sevlievo
1.62

allows per match

Drenovets
1.61
Sevlievo
0.99

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par
Sevlievo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Sevlievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw
59%
Drenovets or Sevlievo
76%
Draw or Sevlievo
65%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+
16%
Sevlievo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals
77%
Drenovets 2+ goals
43%
Drenovets 3+ goals
19%
Sevlievo 1+ goals
80%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
48%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)
46%
Sevlievo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Sevlievo away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Sevlievo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sevlievo attack 1.62 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Drenovets scores more
35%
level
24%
Sevlievo scores more
41%

Sevlievo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Drenovets 0–0 Sevlievo

Drenovets and Sevlievo drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Drenovets in Drenovets.