Sevlievo 5–1 Boruna Tsareva livada: Result & Stats

Sevlievo

FT

5 – 1

Boruna Tsareva livada

6/3/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 30Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sevlievo76%

×Draw15%

Boruna Tsareva livada9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SevlievoExpected goals in this matchBoruna Tsareva livada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.73

Sevlievo

2.52

Boruna Tsareva livada

0.73

Sevlievo creates 245% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 29 away

2.42

creates per match

0.72

0.74

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Sevlievo

2.42

Boruna Tsareva livada

0.72

allows per match

Sevlievo

0.74

Boruna Tsareva livada

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Boruna Tsareva livada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw

91%

Sevlievo or Boruna Tsareva livada

85%

Draw or Boruna Tsareva livada

24%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+

54%

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals

92%

Sevlievo 2+ goals

71%

Sevlievo 3+ goals

45%

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals

52%

Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals

17%

Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)

90%

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Boruna Tsareva livada away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.52

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 0.72 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sevlievo scores more

76%

level

15%

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more

9%

Sevlievo at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff