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Boruna Tsareva livada vs Sevlievo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
FT
0 – 1
Sevlievo
Sevlievo
9/9/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 5Stadion Tsareva Livada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Boruna Tsareva livada27%
×Draw22%
Sevlievo50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boruna Tsareva livada
1.37
Sevlievo
1.92

Sevlievo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 94 away

creates per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
1.75
Sevlievo
1.62

allows per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
2.21
Sevlievo
0.99

finishing

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par
Sevlievo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boruna Tsareva livada ↓

Sevlievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Boruna Tsareva livada or draw
50%
Boruna Tsareva livada or Sevlievo
78%
Draw or Sevlievo
73%

Winning margin

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
12%
Sevlievo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
75%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
40%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
16%
Sevlievo 1+ goals
85%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
57%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
35%
Sevlievo (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boruna Tsareva livada at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

Sevlievo away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 1.75 + Sevlievo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sevlievo attack 1.62 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
27%
level
22%
Sevlievo scores more
50%

Sevlievo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boruna Tsareva livada vs Sevlievo

Sevlievo beat Boruna Tsareva livada 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tsareva Livada in Dryanovo.