Sevilla U19 2–0 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Sevilla U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Salzburg U19

Antonio Zarzana 45+1'

Alexandro Fernández 35'

9/14/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sevilla U1934%

×Draw25%

Salzburg U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.50

Sevilla U19

1.33

Salzburg U19

1.50

Salzburg U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

1.22

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sevilla U19

1.22

Salzburg U19

2.00

allows per match

Sevilla U19

1.00

Salzburg U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sevilla U19 or draw

59%

Sevilla U19 or Salzburg U19

75%

Draw or Salzburg U19

66%

Winning margin

Sevilla U19 wins by 2+

15%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sevilla U19 1+ goals

74%

Sevilla U19 2+ goals

38%

Sevilla U19 3+ goals

15%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

78%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

44%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla U19 attack 1.22 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Salzburg U19 attack 2.00 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sevilla U19 scores more

34%

level

25%

Salzburg U19 scores more

41%

Salzburg U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Alexandro Fernández↳ Diego Hormigo

45+1'

Antonio Zarzana↳ Carlos Álvarez

50'

J. Omoregie

54'

D. Jimenez Montano

61'

T. Schiestl← T. Sahin

61'

F. Crescenti← E. Havel

70'

L. Reischl← R. Hofer

74'

Diego Rodríguez← Carlos Álvarez

79'

Gonzalo Guzmán← Alexandro Fernández

88'

Sergio Martínez← Diego Jiménez

89'

Pablo Rivera← Juanlu

89'

Ángel Mancheño← Antonio Zarzana

90+9'

R. Simic

Sevilla

Salzburg

21

3

5

4

2

33

22

▼

Sahin

17

Kameri

38

▼

Hofer

7

▼

15

1

5

4

2

▼

Jiménez

3

A

Hormigo

7

⚽

▼

Zarzana

8

▼

Juanlu

11

Bueno

6

Expósito

10

A

▼

Álvarez

9

⚽

▼

Fernández

Manager: Alejandro Acejo

74'▲Diego Rodríguez←▼Carlos Álvarez

79'▲Gonzalo Guzmán←▼Alexandro Fernández

88'▲Sergio Martínez←▼Diego Jiménez

89'▲Pablo Rivera←▼Juanlu

89'▲Ángel Mancheño←▼Antonio Zarzana

Sevilla U19 substitutes

17Rodríguez16Guzmán14Martínez15Rivera12Mancheño13Romero18Fernández

Manager: R. Aufhauser

61'▲T. Schiestl←▼T. Sahin

61'▲F. Crescenti←▼E. Havel

70'▲L. Reischl←▼R. Hofer

Salzburg U19 substitutes

20Schiestl18Crescenti9Reischl30Baidoo29Ibertsberger1Krumrey13Berki

UEFA Youth League: Sevilla U19 2–0 Salzburg U19

Sevilla U19 beat Salzburg U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on September 14, 2021.

Goals: Alexandro Fernández (35'), Antonio Zarzana (45+1').

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.

Sevilla U19 vs Salzburg U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Sevilla U19 2–0 Salzburg U19