Salzburg U19 2–0 Sevilla U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sevilla U19

R. Šimić 90'

S. Major 74'

12/8/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6DAS.GOLDBERG Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Salzburg U1956%

×Draw22%

Sevilla U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchSevilla U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.22

Salzburg U19

2.02

Sevilla U19

1.22

Salzburg U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

2.67

creates per match

0.82

1.61

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.67

Sevilla U19

0.82

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.61

Sevilla U19

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Sevilla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Sevilla U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

77%

Salzburg U19 or Sevilla U19

78%

Draw or Sevilla U19

44%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

33%

Sevilla U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

87%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

60%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

33%

Sevilla U19 1+ goals

70%

Sevilla U19 2+ goals

34%

Sevilla U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Sevilla U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.67 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.02

Sevilla U19 attack 0.82 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

56%

level

22%

Sevilla U19 scores more

23%

Salzburg U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

M. Exposito Jimenez

44'

D. Jimenez Montano

51'

D. Hormigo

54'

A. Fernandez Gomez

62'

Pablo Rivera← Antonio Arcos

63'

Ángel Mancheño← Diego Hormigo

63'

Diego Rodríguez← Alexandro Fernández

64'

D. Owusu← E. Havel

66'

B. Bockle

74'

S. Major↳ R. Šimić

78'

Daniel Lidueña← Manuel Bueno

78'

Carlos Calero← Sergio Martínez

84'

L. Wallner

84'

90+5'

D. Klicnik← B. Atiabou

90+4'

T. Paumgartner← J. Omoregie

90+2'

R. Hofer← D. Kameri

90+4'

L. Ibertsberger← B. Böckle

90'

R. Šimić↳ D. Owusu

Salzburg

Sevilla

1

Flores

5

Salas

4

Bena

3

▼

Martínez

2

Jiménez

11

▼

Hormigo

7

Zarzana

8

▼

Bueno

6

Expósito

10

▼

Arcos

9

▼

Fernández

21

Stejskal

3

▼

Böckle

4

Wallner

30

Baidoo

2

▼

Atiabou

16

⚽

Major

33

▼

Omoregie

22

Sahin

17

▼

Kameri

7

▼

Havel

15

⚽A

Šimić

Manager: R. Aufhauser

64'▲D. Owusu←▼E. Havel

90+5'▲D. Klicnik←▼B. Atiabou

90+4'▲T. Paumgartner←▼J. Omoregie

90+2'▲R. Hofer←▼D. Kameri

90+4'▲L. Ibertsberger←▼B. Böckle

Salzburg U19 substitutes

11Owusu34Klicnik35Paumgartner38Hofer29Ibertsberger25Halwachs1Krumrey

Manager: Lolo Rosano

62'▲Pablo Rivera←▼Antonio Arcos

63'▲Ángel Mancheño←▼Diego Hormigo

63'▲Diego Rodríguez←▼Alexandro Fernández

78'▲Daniel Lidueña←▼Manuel Bueno

78'▲Carlos Calero←▼Sergio Martínez

Sevilla U19 substitutes

15Rivera12Mancheño18Rodríguez17Lidueña16Calero14López13Romero

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Sevilla U19

Salzburg U19 beat Sevilla U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on December 8, 2021.

Goals: S. Major (74'), R. Šimić (90').

The match was played at DAS.GOLDBERG Stadion in Grödig.

Salzburg U19 vs Sevilla U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Sevilla U19