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Sevilla U19 vs PSV U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Sevilla U19
Sevilla U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PSV U19
PSV U19
11/29/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sevilla U1951%
×Draw26%
PSV U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla U19
1.55
PSV U19
0.95

Sevilla U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sevilla U19
1.22
PSV U19
0.89

allows per match

Sevilla U19
1.00
PSV U19
1.89

finishing

Sevilla U19+0.00on par
PSV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla U19 ↓

PSV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sevilla U19 or draw
77%
Sevilla U19 or PSV U19
74%
Draw or PSV U19
49%

Winning margin

Sevilla U19 wins by 2+
27%
PSV U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sevilla U19 1+ goals
79%
Sevilla U19 2+ goals
46%
Sevilla U19 3+ goals
20%
PSV U19 1+ goals
61%
PSV U19 2+ goals
25%
PSV U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)
69%
PSV U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

PSV U19 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla U19 attack 1.22 + PSV U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.55

PSV U19 attack 0.89 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sevilla U19 scores more
51%
level
26%
PSV U19 scores more
23%

Sevilla U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sevilla U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevilla U19 vs PSV U19

Sevilla U19 beat PSV U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.