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PSV U19 vs Sevilla U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

PSV U19
PSV U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sevilla U19
Sevilla U19
10/3/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2PSV Campus De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

PSV U1953%
×Draw24%
Sevilla U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV U19
1.68
Sevilla U19
1.02

PSV U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

PSV U19
2.00
Sevilla U19
0.82

allows per match

PSV U19
1.22
Sevilla U19
1.36

finishing

PSV U19+0.00on par
Sevilla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV U19 ↓

Sevilla U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

PSV U19 or draw
77%
PSV U19 or Sevilla U19
76%
Draw or Sevilla U19
47%

Winning margin

PSV U19 wins by 2+
29%
Sevilla U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PSV U19 1+ goals
81%
PSV U19 2+ goals
50%
PSV U19 3+ goals
24%
Sevilla U19 1+ goals
64%
Sevilla U19 2+ goals
27%
Sevilla U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

PSV U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Sevilla U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV U19 attack 2.00 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sevilla U19 attack 0.82 + PSV U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PSV U19 scores more
53%
level
24%
Sevilla U19 scores more
23%

PSV U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "PSV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: PSV U19 1–1 Sevilla U19

PSV U19 and Sevilla U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eindhoven.