Sevilla U19 0–0 Lille U19: Result & Stats

Sevilla U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lille U19

11/2/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sevilla U1943%

×Draw27%

Lille U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla U19Expected goals in this matchLille U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.08

Sevilla U19

1.36

Lille U19

1.08

Sevilla U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.22

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sevilla U19

1.22

Lille U19

1.17

allows per match

Sevilla U19

1.00

Lille U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla U19+0.00on par

Lille U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla U19 ↓

Lille U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sevilla U19 or draw

70%

Sevilla U19 or Lille U19

73%

Draw or Lille U19

57%

Winning margin

Sevilla U19 wins by 2+

20%

Lille U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sevilla U19 1+ goals

74%

Sevilla U19 2+ goals

39%

Sevilla U19 3+ goals

16%

Lille U19 1+ goals

66%

Lille U19 2+ goals

29%

Lille U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Lille U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Lille U19 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla U19 attack 1.22 + Lille U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lille U19 attack 1.17 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sevilla U19 scores more

43%

level

27%

Lille U19 scores more

30%

Sevilla U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sevilla U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

C. Mabanza

48'

N. Innocenti

50'

D. Fernandez Talaveron

52'

E. Salas Valiente

58'

Antonio Arcos← Diego Talaverón

66'

José Reis← A. Messoussa

72'

Pablo Rivera← Manuel Bueno

82'

Sergio Martínez← Alexandro Fernández

82'

Diego Rodríguez← Carlos Álvarez

82'

K. Auvray← E. Boula

Sevilla

Lille

1

2

3

7

5

4

9

▼

6

8

10

11

▼

1

5

4

2

3

8

11

▼

Bueno

6

Expósito

10

▼

Álvarez

7

▼

Talaverón

9

▼

Fernández

Manager: Lolo Rosano

58'▲Antonio Arcos←▼Diego Talaverón

72'▲Pablo Rivera←▼Manuel Bueno

82'▲Sergio Martínez←▼Alexandro Fernández

82'▲Diego Rodríguez←▼Carlos Álvarez

Sevilla U19 substitutes

16Arcos15Rivera18Martínez17Rodríguez12Mancheño14López13Romero

Manager: S. Pichot

66'▲José Reis←▼A. Messoussa

82'▲K. Auvray←▼E. Boula

Lille U19 substitutes

17Reis13Auvray14Vromant16Đurović12Ramet15Faiz

Match Recap: Sevilla U19 vs Lille U19

Sevilla U19 and Lille U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.

Sevilla U19 vs Lille U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sevilla U19 vs Lille U19