Lille U19 0–3 Sevilla U19: Result & Stats

Lille U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Sevilla U19

Juanlu 90+2'

Diego Talaverón 43'

Darío Benavides 22'

10/20/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Complexe Sportif de Luchin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lille U1947%

×Draw29%

Sevilla U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lille U19Expected goals in this matchSevilla U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.82

Lille U19

1.27

Sevilla U19

0.82

Lille U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.17

creates per match

0.82

0.83

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Lille U19

1.17

Sevilla U19

0.82

allows per match

Lille U19

0.83

Sevilla U19

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lille U19+0.00on par

Sevilla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille U19 ↓

Sevilla U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lille U19 or draw

76%

Lille U19 or Sevilla U19

71%

Draw or Sevilla U19

53%

Winning margin

Lille U19 wins by 2+

21%

Sevilla U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lille U19 1+ goals

72%

Lille U19 2+ goals

36%

Lille U19 3+ goals

14%

Sevilla U19 1+ goals

56%

Sevilla U19 2+ goals

20%

Sevilla U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lille U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille U19 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Sevilla U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille U19 attack 1.17 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sevilla U19 attack 0.82 + Lille U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lille U19 scores more

47%

level

29%

Sevilla U19 scores more

24%

Lille U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lille U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

U. Raghouber

22'

Darío Benavides

25'

D. Jimenez Montano

43'

Diego Talaverón↳ Antonio Zarzana

46'

Ángel Mancheño← Antonio Zarzana

51'

J. Mboyo← U. Raghouber

57'

Sergio Martínez← Diego Jiménez

58'

M. Exposito Jimenez

60'

J. Bica

66'

Diego Rodríguez← Diego Talaverón

70'

A. Messoussa← N. Buayi-Kiala

74'

D. Hormigo

79'

R. Baptiste

82'

L. Yoro← Y. Said

86'

Pablo Rivera← Alexandro Fernández

87'

R. Ascone

90+2'

Juanlu↳ Diego Rodríguez

Lille

Sevilla

1

Flores

5

Salas

4

⚽

Benavides

2

▼

Jiménez

3

Hormigo

7

A

▼

Zarzana

8

⚽

Juanlu

11

Bueno

6

Expósito

9

⚽

▼

Talaverón

10

▼

1

3

5

4

2

11

8

▼

Raghouber

6

▼

Buayi-Kia

10

Ascone

9

Reis

7

▼

Said

Manager: S. Pichot

51'▲J. Mboyo←▼U. Raghouber

70'▲A. Messoussa←▼N. Buayi-Kiala

82'▲L. Yoro←▼Y. Said

Lille U19 substitutes

15Mboyo18Messoussa17Yoro14Vromant12Mabanza16Đurović13Lantaki

Manager: Lolo Rosano

46'▲Ángel Mancheño←▼Antonio Zarzana

57'▲Sergio Martínez←▼Diego Jiménez

66'▲Diego Rodríguez←▼Diego Talaverón

86'▲Pablo Rivera←▼Alexandro Fernández

Sevilla U19 substitutes

12Mancheño18Martínez17Rodríguez15Rivera13Romero16Lidueña14Calero

UEFA Youth League: Lille U19 0–3 Sevilla U19

Sevilla U19 beat Lille U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 20, 2021.

Goals: Darío Benavides (22'), Diego Talaverón (43'), Juanlu (90+2').

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Luchin in Camphin-en-Pévèle.

Lille U19 vs Sevilla U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Lille U19 0–3 Sevilla U19