Sevilla U19 0–1 Lens U19: Result & Stats

Sevilla U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lens U19

9/20/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sevilla U1933%

×Draw31%

Lens U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla U19Expected goals in this matchLens U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.00

Sevilla U19

0.95

Lens U19

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Sevilla U19

1.22

Lens U19

1.00

allows per match

Sevilla U19

1.00

Lens U19

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla U19+0.00on par

Lens U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla U19 ↓

Lens U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sevilla U19 or draw

64%

Sevilla U19 or Lens U19

69%

Draw or Lens U19

67%

Winning margin

Sevilla U19 wins by 2+

12%

Lens U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sevilla U19 1+ goals

61%

Sevilla U19 2+ goals

25%

Sevilla U19 3+ goals

7%

Lens U19 1+ goals

63%

Lens U19 2+ goals

26%

Lens U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Lens U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Lens U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla U19 attack 1.22 + Lens U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Lens U19 attack 1.00 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sevilla U19 scores more

33%

level

31%

Lens U19 scores more

36%

Lens U19 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lens U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff