Lens U19 1–1 Sevilla U19: Result & Stats

Lens U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sevilla U19

12/12/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Stade François Blin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lens U1951%

×Draw28%

Sevilla U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lens U19Expected goals in this matchSevilla U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.74

Lens U19

1.35

Sevilla U19

0.74

Lens U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

1.33

creates per match

0.82

0.67

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Lens U19

1.33

Sevilla U19

0.82

allows per match

Lens U19

0.67

Sevilla U19

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lens U19+0.00on par

Sevilla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lens U19 ↓

Sevilla U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lens U19 or draw

79%

Lens U19 or Sevilla U19

72%

Draw or Sevilla U19

49%

Winning margin

Lens U19 wins by 2+

25%

Sevilla U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lens U19 1+ goals

74%

Lens U19 2+ goals

39%

Lens U19 3+ goals

15%

Sevilla U19 1+ goals

52%

Sevilla U19 2+ goals

17%

Sevilla U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Lens U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lens U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Sevilla U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lens U19 attack 1.33 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sevilla U19 attack 0.82 + Lens U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lens U19 scores more

51%

level

28%

Sevilla U19 scores more

21%

Lens U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lens U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Lens U19 1–1 Sevilla U19

Lens U19 and Sevilla U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on December 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade François Blin in Avion.

Lens U19 vs Sevilla U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Lens U19 1–1 Sevilla U19