Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sevilla III vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Sevilla III
Sevilla III
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
5/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 32Campo Prado de San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Sevilla III36%
×Draw30%
Ciudad de Lucena34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla III
1.06
Ciudad de Lucena
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Sevilla III
1.22
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

allows per match

Sevilla III
0.96
Ciudad de Lucena
0.90

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw
66%
Sevilla III or Ciudad de Lucena
70%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
64%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+
14%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals
65%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
29%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
9%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
64%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
27%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)
52%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sevilla III scores more
36%
level
30%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
34%

Sevilla III at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevilla III 0 – 1 Ciudad de Lucena

Ciudad de Lucena beat Sevilla III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Prado de San Sebastián in Sevilla.