Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ciudad de Lucena vs Sevilla III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sevilla III
Sevilla III
12/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena57%
×Draw26%
Sevilla III17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Lucena
1.53
Sevilla III
0.71

Ciudad de Lucena creates 115% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena
1.89
Sevilla III
0.85

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena
0.56
Sevilla III
1.18

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par
Sevilla III+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Sevilla III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw
83%
Ciudad de Lucena or Sevilla III
74%
Draw or Sevilla III
43%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
30%
Sevilla III wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
78%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
45%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
20%
Sevilla III 1+ goals
51%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
16%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
77%
Sevilla III (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

Sevilla III away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + Sevilla III defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sevilla III attack 0.85 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more
57%
level
26%
Sevilla III scores more
17%

Ciudad de Lucena at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Lucena 4 – 1 Sevilla III

Ciudad de Lucena beat Sevilla III 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena in Lucena.