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Sevilla III vs Ayamonte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Sevilla III
Sevilla III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ayamonte
Ayamonte
12/4/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Campo Prado de San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sevilla III48%
×Draw28%
Ayamonte24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla III
1.38
Ayamonte
0.89

Sevilla III creates 55% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sevilla III
1.22
Ayamonte
0.81

allows per match

Sevilla III
0.96
Ayamonte
1.53

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par
Ayamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Ayamonte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw
76%
Sevilla III or Ayamonte
72%
Draw or Ayamonte
52%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+
23%
Ayamonte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals
75%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
40%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
16%
Ayamonte 1+ goals
59%
Ayamonte 2+ goals
22%
Ayamonte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)
67%
Ayamonte (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Ayamonte away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Ayamonte defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ayamonte attack 0.81 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sevilla III scores more
48%
level
28%
Ayamonte scores more
24%

Sevilla III at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Sevilla III 1–0 Ayamonte

Sevilla III beat Ayamonte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Prado de San Sebastián in Sevilla.