Ayamonte 2–1 Sevilla III: Result & Stats

Ayamonte

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sevilla III

3/23/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 26Estadio Blas Infante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ayamonte38%

×Draw29%

Sevilla III33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AyamonteExpected goals in this matchSevilla III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.06

Ayamonte

1.17

Sevilla III

1.06

Ayamonte creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 111 away

1.16

creates per match

0.85

1.28

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ayamonte

1.16

Sevilla III

0.85

allows per match

Ayamonte

1.28

Sevilla III

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayamonte+0.00on par

Sevilla III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayamonte ↓

Sevilla III →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ayamonte or draw

67%

Ayamonte or Sevilla III

71%

Draw or Sevilla III

62%

Winning margin

Ayamonte wins by 2+

16%

Sevilla III wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ayamonte 1+ goals

69%

Ayamonte 2+ goals

33%

Ayamonte 3+ goals

11%

Sevilla III 1+ goals

65%

Sevilla III 2+ goals

29%

Sevilla III 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ayamonte (draw refunded)

54%

Sevilla III (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ayamonte at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Sevilla III away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ayamonte attack 1.16 + Sevilla III defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sevilla III attack 0.85 + Ayamonte defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ayamonte scores more

38%

level

29%

Sevilla III scores more

33%

Ayamonte at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ayamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff