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Sevilla III vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Sevilla III
Sevilla III
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
12/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Campo Prado de San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sevilla III52%
×Draw25%
Atlético Espeleño23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla III
1.56
Atlético Espeleño
0.94

Sevilla III creates 66% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Sevilla III
1.22
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Sevilla III
0.96
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw
77%
Sevilla III or Atlético Espeleño
75%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
48%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals
79%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
46%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
21%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sevilla III scores more
52%
level
25%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
23%

Sevilla III at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Sevilla III 0–2 Atlético Espeleño

Atlético Espeleño beat Sevilla III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Prado de San Sebastián in Sevilla.