Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Espeleño vs Sevilla III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sevilla III
Sevilla III
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 5Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Atlético Espeleño43%
×Draw28%
Sevilla III29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Espeleño
1.27
Sevilla III
1.00

Atlético Espeleño creates 27% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 111 away

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
Sevilla III
0.85

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.16
Sevilla III
1.18

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par
Sevilla III+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Sevilla III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw
71%
Atlético Espeleño or Sevilla III
72%
Draw or Sevilla III
57%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
19%
Sevilla III wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
14%
Sevilla III 1+ goals
63%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
26%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
59%
Sevilla III (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Sevilla III away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Sevilla III defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sevilla III attack 0.85 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more
43%
level
28%
Sevilla III scores more
29%

Atlético Espeleño at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Espeleño 3–1 Sevilla III

Atlético Espeleño beat Sevilla III 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.