Sevilla III 1–3 Atlético Central: Result & Stats

Sevilla III

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Central

5/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 34Campo Prado de San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sevilla III40%

×Draw31%

Atlético Central29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla IIIExpected goals in this matchAtlético Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.86

Sevilla III

1.06

Atlético Central

0.86

Sevilla III creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 35 away

1.22

creates per match

0.77

0.96

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Sevilla III

1.22

Atlético Central

0.77

allows per match

Sevilla III

0.96

Atlético Central

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par

Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Atlético Central →

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw

71%

Sevilla III or Atlético Central

69%

Draw or Atlético Central

60%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+

16%

Atlético Central wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals

65%

Sevilla III 2+ goals

29%

Sevilla III 3+ goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals

58%

Atlético Central 2+ goals

21%

Atlético Central 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)

58%

Atlético Central (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sevilla III scores more

40%

level

31%

Atlético Central scores more

29%

Sevilla III at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Sevilla III 1–3 Atlético Central

Atlético Central beat Sevilla III 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Prado de San Sebastián in Sevilla.

Sevilla III vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Sevilla III 1–3 Atlético Central