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Atlético Central vs Sevilla III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Central
Atlético Central
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sevilla III
Sevilla III
1/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 17Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atlético Central51%
×Draw27%
Sevilla III21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Central
1.40
Sevilla III
0.80

Atlético Central creates 75% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 111 away

creates per match

Atlético Central
1.61
Sevilla III
0.85

allows per match

Atlético Central
0.75
Sevilla III
1.18

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par
Sevilla III+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Sevilla III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw
79%
Atlético Central or Sevilla III
73%
Draw or Sevilla III
49%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+
25%
Sevilla III wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
17%
Sevilla III 1+ goals
55%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
19%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)
70%
Sevilla III (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Sevilla III away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Sevilla III defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sevilla III attack 0.85 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Central scores more
51%
level
27%
Sevilla III scores more
21%

Atlético Central at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Sevilla III

Atlético Central beat Sevilla III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá in Alcalá de Guadaíra.