Sevilla Atletico 2–2 Antequera: Result & Stats

Sevilla Atletico

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Antequera

Alberto Collado 72'

Darío Benavides 55'

Álex Rubio 31', 15'

9/22/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sevilla Atletico39%

×Draw29%

Antequera31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla AtleticoExpected goals in this matchAntequera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.00

Sevilla Atletico

1.16

Antequera

1.00

Sevilla Atletico creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.05

creates per match

1.05

0.96

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sevilla Atletico

1.05

Antequera

1.05

allows per match

Sevilla Atletico

0.96

Antequera

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla Atletico ↓

Antequera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sevilla Atletico or draw

69%

Sevilla Atletico or Antequera

71%

Draw or Antequera

61%

Winning margin

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+

17%

Antequera wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals

69%

Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals

32%

Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals

11%

Antequera 1+ goals

63%

Antequera 2+ goals

26%

Antequera 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)

56%

Antequera (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla Atletico at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla Atletico attack 1.05 + Antequera defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Antequera attack 1.05 + Sevilla Atletico defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sevilla Atletico scores more

39%

level

29%

Antequera scores more

31%

Sevilla Atletico at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sevilla Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Álex Rubio

31'

Álex Rubio

39'

A. Rubio

46'

Álvaro García← Miguel Ángel

46'

Alberto Collado← Pablo Rivera

50'

M. Mejia

55'

Darío Benavides

57'

T. Lanzini← Álex Rubio

57'

J. Obounet← O. Siddiki

58'

I. Dominguez

65'

Diego Hormigo← Isra Domínguez

66'

I. Sow← M. Mejía

72'

Alberto Collado

75'

A. Collado

76'

Iñaki Elejalde← Luismi Gutiérrez

76'

Xemi← Chema Núñez

79'

I. Moreno

83'

Sergio Martínez← L. Antonetti

Sevilla

Antequera

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jesús Galván

46'▲Álvaro García←▼Miguel Ángel

46'▲Alberto Collado←▼Pablo Rivera

65'▲Diego Hormigo←▼Isra Domínguez

66'▲I. Sow←▼M. Mejía

83'▲Sergio Martínez←▼L. Antonetti

Sevilla Atletico substitutes

GarcíaColladoHormigoSowMartínezCiriaCortézGuillénFernándezOrtínÁrbolJalade

Manager: Javier Medina

57'▲T. Lanzini←▼Álex Rubio

57'▲J. Obounet←▼O. Siddiki

76'▲Iñaki Elejalde←▼Luismi Gutiérrez

76'▲Xemi←▼Chema Núñez

Antequera substitutes

LanziniObounetElejaldeXemiMorenoMarceloAlcoverLarioRibeiroArranzRecioBelza

Match Recap: Sevilla Atletico vs Antequera

Sevilla Atletico and Antequera drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 22, 2024.

Goals: Álex Rubio (15', 31'), Darío Benavides (55'), Alberto Collado (72').

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.

Sevilla Atletico vs Antequera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sevilla Atletico vs Antequera