Antequera 2–2 Sevilla Atletico: Result & Stats

Antequera

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sevilla Atletico

F. Fomeyem 90+6'

Álex Rubio 90+1'

M. Mejía 65'

Iker Ortín 48'

5/3/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Antequera52%

×Draw26%

Sevilla Atletico23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntequeraExpected goals in this matchSevilla Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.92

Antequera

1.54

Sevilla Atletico

0.92

Antequera creates 67% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.54

creates per match

0.65

1.19

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Antequera

1.54

Sevilla Atletico

0.65

allows per match

Antequera

1.19

Sevilla Atletico

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Sevilla Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Antequera or draw

77%

Antequera or Sevilla Atletico

74%

Draw or Sevilla Atletico

48%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+

27%

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals

79%

Antequera 2+ goals

45%

Antequera 3+ goals

20%

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals

60%

Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals

23%

Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)

70%

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Antequera scores more

52%

level

26%

Sevilla Atletico scores more

23%

Antequera at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

I. Perez

23'

D. Benavides

23'

P. Roige Rodriguez

30'

Castrin

48'

Iker Ortín

60'

Alejandro Marcelo← Juan Aspra

60'

Luismi Gutiérrez← Pol Roigé

65'

M. Mejía

66'

Isaac González← Toni Arranz

66'

Isra Domínguez← Miguel Ángel

70'

Dima← Alberto Collado

71'

76'

76'

78'

79'

J. Cortez

81'

81'

88'

88'

90+1'

90+6'

Antequera

Sevilla

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Javier Medina

60'▲Alejandro Marcelo←▼Juan Aspra

60'▲Luismi Gutiérrez←▼Pol Roigé

66'▲Isaac González←▼Toni Arranz

76'▲Álex Rubio←▼S. Longo

76'▲Xemi←▼Guillem Jaime

Antequera substitutes

MarceloGutiérrezGonzálezRubioXemiAlcoverElejaldeMorenoRodríguezLuengoSiddiki

Manager: Jesús Galván

66'▲Isra Domínguez←▼Miguel Ángel

70'▲Dima←▼Alberto Collado

81'▲I. Sow←▼L. Antonetti

81'▲R. Jalade←▼M. Mejía

Sevilla Atletico substitutes

DomínguezDimaSowJaladeCiriaCortézKapilevichÁrbolGuillénMéndez

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Antequera 2–2 Sevilla Atletico

Antequera and Sevilla Atletico drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: Iker Ortín (48'), M. Mejía (65'), Álex Rubio (90+1'), F. Fomeyem (90+6').

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.

Antequera vs Sevilla Atletico — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Antequera 2–2 Sevilla Atletico