Sevilla Atletico 1–2 Albacete: Result & Stats

Sevilla Atletico

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Albacete

Carlos Fernández 13' (pen)

César de la Hoz 71'

Dani Rodríguez 33' (pen)

3/16/2018

Segunda División · Round 31Ciudad Deportiva Jose Ramon Cisneros Palacios

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sevilla Atletico44%

×Draw27%

Albacete29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla AtleticoExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.10

Sevilla Atletico

1.41

Albacete

1.10

Sevilla Atletico creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 154 away

1.50

creates per match

1.03

1.17

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sevilla Atletico

1.50

Albacete

1.03

allows per match

Sevilla Atletico

1.17

Albacete

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla Atletico ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sevilla Atletico or draw

71%

Sevilla Atletico or Albacete

73%

Draw or Albacete

56%

Winning margin

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+

21%

Albacete wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals

76%

Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals

41%

Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals

17%

Albacete 1+ goals

67%

Albacete 2+ goals

30%

Albacete 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)

60%

Albacete (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla Atletico at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla Atletico attack 1.50 + Albacete defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Albacete attack 1.03 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sevilla Atletico scores more

44%

level

27%

Albacete scores more

29%

Sevilla Atletico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sevilla Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

César de la Hoz

Albacete · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Carlos FernándezPenalty

23'

Chus Herrero

31'

Mariano Konyk

33'

Dani RodríguezPenalty

35'

Jon Erice

63'

César de la Hoz← Néstor Susaeta

66'

José Mena← José Alonso

67'

Héctor Hernández← J. Bela

71'

César de la Hoz

75'

Alejandro Pozo← Olavide

81'

Cifuentes← Aridane

85'

Marc Gual← Y. Eteki

90'

Dani Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SevillaAlbacete

Overview

52%Possession48%

6Total Shots9

5Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots9

3On Target6

2Off Target3

1Blocked0

3Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

374Total Passes349

269Accurate Passes232

72%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides4

Segunda División: Sevilla Atletico 1–2 Albacete

Albacete beat Sevilla Atletico 2-1 in Segunda División on March 16, 2018.

Goals: Carlos Fernández (13' pen), Dani Rodríguez (33' pen), César de la Hoz (71').

Sevilla Atletico controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Jose Ramon Cisneros Palacios in Seville.

Sevilla Atletico vs Albacete — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Sevilla Atletico 1–2 Albacete