Albacete 2–1 Sevilla Atletico: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sevilla Atletico

César de la Hoz 20', 4'

Carlos Fernández 65'

10/15/2017

Segunda División · Round 10Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Albacete42%

×Draw31%

Sevilla Atletico27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchSevilla Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.83

Albacete

1.12

Sevilla Atletico

0.83

Albacete creates 35% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 7 away

1.24

creates per match

0.57

1.09

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Albacete

1.24

Sevilla Atletico

0.57

allows per match

Albacete

1.09

Sevilla Atletico

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Sevilla Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

73%

Albacete or Sevilla Atletico

69%

Draw or Sevilla Atletico

58%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

18%

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

67%

Albacete 2+ goals

31%

Albacete 3+ goals

10%

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals

56%

Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals

20%

Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

61%

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 152 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.24 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.57 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Albacete scores more

42%

level

31%

Sevilla Atletico scores more

27%

Albacete at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

César de la Hoz

Albacete · M

8.5

Match Events

4'

César de la Hoz↳ Rafa Gálvez

20'

César de la Hoz↳ Dani Rodríguez

22'

Juan Berrocal

35'

G. Aburjania← José Mena

38'

César de la Hoz

46'

Marc Gual← Y. Eteki

55'

F. Espíndola← R. Zozulya

61'

Jon Erice← Héctor Hernández

65'

Carlos Fernández↳ Alejandro Pozo

68'

Néstor Susaeta← Rafa Gálvez

71'

Aitor Cantalapiedra← Juan Berrocal

77'

Tomeu Nadal

79'

Néstor Susaeta

90'

Curro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteSevilla

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots10

3Corners6

18Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target4

3Off Target4

2Blocked2

3Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

36%Possession64%

256Total Passes421

144Accurate Passes308

56%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

5Offsides3