Seven Dreams 1–1 Moneni Pirates: Result & Stats

Seven Dreams

FT

1 – 1

Moneni Pirates

10/22/2022

Premier League · Round 3King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Seven Dreams24%

×Draw26%

Moneni Pirates49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seven DreamsExpected goals in this matchMoneni Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.48

Seven Dreams

0.95

Moneni Pirates

1.48

Moneni Pirates creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

0.54

creates per match

1.04

1.92

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Seven Dreams

0.54

Moneni Pirates

1.04

allows per match

Seven Dreams

1.92

Moneni Pirates

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seven Dreams ↓

Moneni Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Seven Dreams or draw

51%

Seven Dreams or Moneni Pirates

74%

Draw or Moneni Pirates

76%

Winning margin

Seven Dreams wins by 2+

8%

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Seven Dreams 1+ goals

61%

Seven Dreams 2+ goals

25%

Seven Dreams 3+ goals

7%

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals

77%

Moneni Pirates 2+ goals

43%

Moneni Pirates 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)

33%

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seven Dreams at home — creates 0.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seven Dreams attack 0.54 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.95

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Seven Dreams defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Seven Dreams scores more

24%

level

26%

Moneni Pirates scores more

49%

Moneni Pirates at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff