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Moneni Pirates vs Seven Dreams — Premier League 2020

Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
FT
2 – 2
Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
5/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Moneni Pirates58%
×Draw25%
Seven Dreams17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moneni Pirates
1.61
Seven Dreams
0.74

Moneni Pirates creates 118% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 13 away

creates per match

Moneni Pirates
1.00
Seven Dreams
0.46

allows per match

Moneni Pirates
1.02
Seven Dreams
2.23

finishing

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par
Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneni Pirates ↓

Seven Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Moneni Pirates or draw
83%
Moneni Pirates or Seven Dreams
75%
Draw or Seven Dreams
42%

Winning margin

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
32%
Seven Dreams wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
80%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
48%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
22%
Seven Dreams 1+ goals
52%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
17%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
77%
Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moneni Pirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

Seven Dreams away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moneni Pirates attack 1.00 + Seven Dreams defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Seven Dreams attack 0.46 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Moneni Pirates scores more
58%
level
25%
Seven Dreams scores more
17%

Moneni Pirates at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moneni Pirates vs Seven Dreams

Moneni Pirates and Seven Dreams drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.