Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Seven Dreams vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
FT
0 – 3
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
11/12/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Seven Dreams15%
×Draw24%
Mbabane Swallows61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seven Dreams
0.68
Mbabane Swallows
1.65

Mbabane Swallows creates 143% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

creates per match

Seven Dreams
0.54
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Seven Dreams
1.92
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Seven Dreams+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seven Dreams ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Seven Dreams or draw
39%
Seven Dreams or Mbabane Swallows
76%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
85%

Winning margin

Seven Dreams wins by 2+
4%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Seven Dreams 1+ goals
49%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
15%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
3%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
81%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
49%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
20%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seven Dreams at home — creates 0.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seven Dreams attack 0.54 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.68

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Seven Dreams defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Seven Dreams scores more
15%
level
24%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
61%

Mbabane Swallows at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seven Dreams vs Mbabane Swallows

Mbabane Swallows beat Seven Dreams 3-0 in Premier League on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Kalanga Stadium in Kalanga.