Mbabane Swallows 4–0 Seven Dreams: Result & Stats

Mbabane Swallows

FT

4 – 0

Seven Dreams

2/24/2023

Premier League · Round 13King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mbabane Swallows71%

×Draw20%

Seven Dreams10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbabane SwallowsExpected goals in this matchSeven Dreams

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.58

Mbabane Swallows

1.98

Seven Dreams

0.58

Mbabane Swallows creates 241% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 13 away

1.74

creates per match

0.46

0.71

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows

1.74

Seven Dreams

0.46

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows

0.71

Seven Dreams

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Seven Dreams →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw

90%

Mbabane Swallows or Seven Dreams

80%

Draw or Seven Dreams

29%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+

44%

Seven Dreams wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals

86%

Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals

59%

Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals

31%

Seven Dreams 1+ goals

44%

Seven Dreams 2+ goals

12%

Seven Dreams 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)

88%

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Seven Dreams away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Seven Dreams defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.98

Seven Dreams attack 0.46 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more

71%

level

20%

Seven Dreams scores more

10%

Mbabane Swallows at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff