Seven Dreams 0–1 Manzini Wanderers: Result & Stats

Seven Dreams

FT

0 – 1

Manzini Wanderers

2/4/2023

Premier League · Round 11Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Seven Dreams27%

×Draw26%

Manzini Wanderers47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seven DreamsExpected goals in this matchManzini Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.46

Seven Dreams

1.03

Manzini Wanderers

1.46

Manzini Wanderers creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 69 away

0.54

creates per match

0.99

1.92

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Seven Dreams

0.54

Manzini Wanderers

0.99

allows per match

Seven Dreams

1.92

Manzini Wanderers

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seven Dreams ↓

Manzini Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Seven Dreams or draw

53%

Seven Dreams or Manzini Wanderers

74%

Draw or Manzini Wanderers

73%

Winning margin

Seven Dreams wins by 2+

10%

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Seven Dreams 1+ goals

64%

Seven Dreams 2+ goals

28%

Seven Dreams 3+ goals

9%

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals

77%

Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals

43%

Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)

36%

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seven Dreams at home — creates 0.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Manzini Wanderers away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.52 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seven Dreams attack 0.54 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.03

Manzini Wanderers attack 0.99 + Seven Dreams defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Seven Dreams scores more

27%

level

26%

Manzini Wanderers scores more

47%

Manzini Wanderers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manzini Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff