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Manzini Wanderers vs Seven Dreams — Premier League 2020

Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
FT
2 – 1
Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
1/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Manzini Wanderers50%
×Draw25%
Seven Dreams25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Wanderers
1.62
Seven Dreams
1.08

Manzini Wanderers creates 50% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 13 away

creates per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.01
Seven Dreams
0.46

allows per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.71
Seven Dreams
2.23

finishing

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par
Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Wanderers ↓

Seven Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Manzini Wanderers or draw
75%
Manzini Wanderers or Seven Dreams
75%
Draw or Seven Dreams
50%

Winning margin

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
26%
Seven Dreams wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
80%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
48%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
22%
Seven Dreams 1+ goals
66%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
29%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
66%
Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Wanderers at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Seven Dreams away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Wanderers attack 1.01 + Seven Dreams defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.62

Seven Dreams attack 0.46 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Manzini Wanderers scores more
50%
level
25%
Seven Dreams scores more
25%

Manzini Wanderers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Manzini Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manzini Wanderers 2–1 Seven Dreams

Manzini Wanderers beat Seven Dreams 2-1 in Premier League on January 21, 2023.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.