Seven Dreams 0–3 Green Mamba: Result & Stats

Seven Dreams

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Green Mamba

4/1/2023

Premier League · Round 15Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Seven Dreams15%

×Draw23%

Green Mamba62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seven DreamsExpected goals in this matchGreen Mamba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

1.71

Seven Dreams

0.70

Green Mamba

1.71

Green Mamba creates 144% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 84 away

0.54

creates per match

1.49

1.92

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Seven Dreams

0.54

Green Mamba

1.49

allows per match

Seven Dreams

1.92

Green Mamba

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Green Mamba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seven Dreams ↓

Green Mamba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Seven Dreams or draw

38%

Seven Dreams or Green Mamba

77%

Draw or Green Mamba

85%

Winning margin

Seven Dreams wins by 2+

4%

Green Mamba wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Seven Dreams 1+ goals

50%

Seven Dreams 2+ goals

16%

Seven Dreams 3+ goals

3%

Green Mamba 1+ goals

82%

Green Mamba 2+ goals

51%

Green Mamba 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)

20%

Green Mamba (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seven Dreams at home — creates 0.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Green Mamba away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seven Dreams attack 0.54 + Green Mamba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.70

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Seven Dreams defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Seven Dreams scores more

15%

level

23%

Green Mamba scores more

62%

Green Mamba at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff