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Green Mamba vs Seven Dreams — Premier League 2020

Green Mamba
Green Mamba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
10/1/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Green Mamba64%
×Draw22%
Seven Dreams14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Mamba
1.86
Seven Dreams
0.72

Green Mamba creates 158% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 13 away

creates per match

Green Mamba
1.49
Seven Dreams
0.46

allows per match

Green Mamba
0.98
Seven Dreams
2.23

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par
Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Seven Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw
86%
Green Mamba or Seven Dreams
78%
Draw or Seven Dreams
36%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+
38%
Seven Dreams wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals
84%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
55%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
28%
Seven Dreams 1+ goals
51%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
16%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)
82%
Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Seven Dreams away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Seven Dreams defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Seven Dreams attack 0.46 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Green Mamba scores more
64%
level
22%
Seven Dreams scores more
14%

Green Mamba at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Mamba vs Seven Dreams

Green Mamba beat Seven Dreams 1-0 in Premier League on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Killarney Sports Field in Piggs Peak.