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Sevastopol vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Sevastopol
Sevastopol
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
5/18/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9SKS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sevastopol66%
×Draw21%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevastopol
1.89
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.70

Sevastopol creates 170% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 58 away

creates per match

Sevastopol
1.37
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Sevastopol
0.61
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Sevastopol+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevastopol ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sevastopol or draw
87%
Sevastopol or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
79%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
34%

Winning margin

Sevastopol wins by 2+
40%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sevastopol 1+ goals
85%
Sevastopol 2+ goals
56%
Sevastopol 3+ goals
29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
50%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
16%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sevastopol (draw refunded)
83%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevastopol at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.61 · 51 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevastopol attack 1.37 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.89

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Sevastopol defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sevastopol scores more
66%
level
21%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
13%

Sevastopol at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sevastopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Sevastopol 4–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Sevastopol beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 4-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at SKS Arena in Sevastopol.