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Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Sevastopol — Second League - Group 1 2020

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sevastopol
Sevastopol
9/15/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II19%
×Draw20%
Sevastopol60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.16
Sevastopol
2.19

Sevastopol creates 89% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 52 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
Sevastopol
1.60

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.78
Sevastopol
1.19

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par
Sevastopol+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Sevastopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw
40%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Sevastopol
80%
Draw or Sevastopol
81%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
7%
Sevastopol wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
69%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
32%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
11%
Sevastopol 1+ goals
89%
Sevastopol 2+ goals
64%
Sevastopol 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
24%
Sevastopol (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Sevastopol away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.19 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Sevastopol defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sevastopol attack 1.60 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
19%
level
20%
Sevastopol scores more
60%

Sevastopol at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sevastopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1–3 Sevastopol

Sevastopol beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya in Vladikavkaz.