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Sevan vs Masis — First League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
FT
3 – 2
Masis
Masis
8/16/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sevan69%
×Draw17%
Masis14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
2.58
Masis
1.09

Sevan creates 137% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sevan
2.59
Masis
1.14

allows per match

Sevan
1.04
Masis
2.57

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Masis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
86%
Sevan or Masis
83%
Draw or Masis
31%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
47%
Masis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
92%
Sevan 2+ goals
72%
Sevan 3+ goals
47%
Masis 1+ goals
66%
Masis 2+ goals
30%
Masis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
83%
Masis (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.58

Masis attack 1.14 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sevan scores more
69%
level
17%
Masis scores more
14%

Sevan at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sevan 3–2 Masis

Sevan beat Masis 3-2 in First League on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.