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Masis vs Sevan — First League 2019

Masis
Masis
FT
1 – 1
Sevan
Sevan
3/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Masis23%
×Draw18%
Sevan59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masis
1.73
Sevan
2.79

Sevan creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Masis
2.15
Sevan
2.04

allows per match

Masis
3.54
Sevan
1.32

finishing

Masis+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masis ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Masis or draw
41%
Masis or Sevan
82%
Draw or Sevan
77%

Winning margin

Masis wins by 2+
11%
Sevan wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Masis 1+ goals
82%
Masis 2+ goals
52%
Masis 3+ goals
25%
Sevan 1+ goals
94%
Sevan 2+ goals
76%
Sevan 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Masis (draw refunded)
28%
Sevan (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masis at home — creates 2.15, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

Sevan away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masis attack 2.15 + Sevan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sevan attack 2.04 + Masis defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Masis scores more
23%
level
18%
Sevan scores more
59%

Sevan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Masis 1 – 1 Sevan

Masis and Sevan drew 1-1 in First League on March 4, 2020.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.