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Sevan vs BKMA — Premier League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
CANC
00:00
BKMA
BKMA
3/15/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sevan62%
×Draw23%
BKMA14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
1.70
BKMA
0.66

Sevan creates 158% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sevan
1.67
BKMA
0.98

allows per match

Sevan
0.33
BKMA
1.73

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
BKMA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

BKMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
86%
Sevan or BKMA
77%
Draw or BKMA
38%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
35%
BKMA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
82%
Sevan 2+ goals
51%
Sevan 3+ goals
24%
BKMA 1+ goals
48%
BKMA 2+ goals
14%
BKMA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
82%
BKMA (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

BKMA away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.73 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 1.67 + BKMA defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

BKMA attack 0.98 + Sevan defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sevan scores more
62%
level
23%
BKMA scores more
14%

Sevan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevan face BKMA (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Sevan hosting BKMA. Match starts March 15, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sevan host BKMA at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.