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BKMA vs Sevan — First League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
CANC
08:00
Sevan
Sevan
5/20/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

BKMA50%
×Draw22%
Sevan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
2.04
Sevan
1.52

BKMA creates 34% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

BKMA
2.76
Sevan
2.04

allows per match

BKMA
1.00
Sevan
1.32

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
71%
BKMA or Sevan
78%
Draw or Sevan
50%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
29%
Sevan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
87%
BKMA 2+ goals
60%
BKMA 3+ goals
33%
Sevan 1+ goals
78%
Sevan 2+ goals
45%
Sevan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
63%
Sevan (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Sevan away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 2.76 + Sevan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sevan attack 2.04 + BKMA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BKMA scores more
50%
level
22%
Sevan scores more
29%

BKMA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: BKMA host Sevan

May 20, 2021: BKMA take on Sevan in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

BKMA host Sevan at Yerevan Football Academy.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.