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Sevan vs Banants II — First League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
FT
3 – 1
Banants II
Banants II
3/9/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sevan56%
×Draw21%
Banants II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
2.19
Banants II
1.38

Sevan creates 59% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 99 away

creates per match

Sevan
2.59
Banants II
1.71

allows per match

Sevan
1.04
Banants II
1.79

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Banants II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Banants II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
76%
Sevan or Banants II
79%
Draw or Banants II
44%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
34%
Banants II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
89%
Sevan 2+ goals
64%
Sevan 3+ goals
37%
Banants II 1+ goals
75%
Banants II 2+ goals
40%
Banants II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
70%
Banants II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Banants II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + Banants II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.19

Banants II attack 1.71 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sevan scores more
56%
level
21%
Banants II scores more
24%

Sevan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sevan 3–1 Banants II

Sevan beat Banants II 3-1 in First League on March 9, 2020.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.