Banants II 1–1 Sevan: Result & Stats | First League

Banants II

FT

1 – 1

Sevan

11/1/2020

First League · Round 12Banants-3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Banants II35%

×Draw23%

Sevan42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banants IIExpected goals in this matchSevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.75

Banants II

1.60

Sevan

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 28 away

1.88

creates per match

2.04

1.47

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Banants II

1.88

Sevan

2.04

allows per match

Banants II

1.47

Sevan

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banants II+0.00on par

Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banants II ↓

Sevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Banants II or draw

58%

Banants II or Sevan

77%

Draw or Sevan

65%

Winning margin

Banants II wins by 2+

17%

Sevan wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Banants II 1+ goals

80%

Banants II 2+ goals

47%

Banants II 3+ goals

22%

Sevan 1+ goals

83%

Sevan 2+ goals

52%

Sevan 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Banants II (draw refunded)

46%

Sevan (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banants II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 100 matches

Sevan away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banants II attack 1.88 + Sevan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sevan attack 2.04 + Banants II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Banants II scores more

35%

level

23%

Sevan scores more

42%

Sevan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff