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Sevan vs Aragats — First League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
FT
1 – 0
Aragats
Aragats
10/21/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sevan62%
×Draw18%
Aragats21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
2.72
Aragats
1.55

Sevan creates 75% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sevan
2.59
Aragats
2.07

allows per match

Sevan
1.04
Aragats
2.86

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Aragats+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Aragats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
79%
Sevan or Aragats
82%
Draw or Aragats
38%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
41%
Aragats wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
93%
Sevan 2+ goals
75%
Sevan 3+ goals
50%
Aragats 1+ goals
79%
Aragats 2+ goals
46%
Aragats 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
75%
Aragats (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Aragats away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + Aragats defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.72

Aragats attack 2.07 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sevan scores more
62%
level
18%
Aragats scores more
21%

Sevan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sevan 1–0 Aragats

Sevan beat Aragats 1-0 in First League on October 21, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.