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Aragats vs Sevan — First League 2019

Aragats
Aragats
FT
4 – 3
Sevan
Sevan
6/28/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Kasakhi Marzik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aragats30%
×Draw21%
Sevan49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragats
1.63
Sevan
2.13

Sevan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Aragats
1.93
Sevan
2.04

allows per match

Aragats
2.21
Sevan
1.32

finishing

Aragats+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragats ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Aragats or draw
51%
Aragats or Sevan
79%
Draw or Sevan
70%

Winning margin

Aragats wins by 2+
14%
Sevan wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Aragats 1+ goals
80%
Aragats 2+ goals
48%
Aragats 3+ goals
22%
Sevan 1+ goals
88%
Sevan 2+ goals
63%
Sevan 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Aragats (draw refunded)
38%
Sevan (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Sevan away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragats attack 1.93 + Sevan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sevan attack 2.04 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aragats scores more
30%
level
21%
Sevan scores more
49%

Sevan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aragats 4 – 3 Sevan

Aragats beat Sevan 4-3 in First League on June 28, 2020.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik in Ashtarak.