Esbjerg II 2–3 B 1909: Result & Stats

Esbjerg II

FT

2 – 3

B 1909

4/21/2018

Denmark Series - Group 3 · Round 19Esbjerg Kunstgræs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Esbjerg II66%

×Draw16%

B 190918%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esbjerg IIExpected goals in this matchB 1909

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

1.67

Esbjerg II

3.17

B 1909

1.67

Esbjerg II creates 90% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

2.33

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Esbjerg II

2.67

B 1909

1.00

allows per match

Esbjerg II

2.33

B 1909

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esbjerg II+0.00on par

B 1909+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg II ↓

B 1909 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Esbjerg II or draw

82%

Esbjerg II or B 1909

84%

Draw or B 1909

34%

Winning margin

Esbjerg II wins by 2+

47%

B 1909 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Esbjerg II 1+ goals

96%

Esbjerg II 2+ goals

82%

Esbjerg II 3+ goals

60%

B 1909 1+ goals

81%

B 1909 2+ goals

50%

B 1909 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg II (draw refunded)

78%

B 1909 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

B 1909 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg II attack 2.67 + B 1909 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.17

B 1909 attack 1.00 + Esbjerg II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Esbjerg II scores more

66%

level

16%

B 1909 scores more

18%

Esbjerg II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Esbjerg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff