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Esbjerg II vs B 1909 — League #126 2026

Esbjerg II
Esbjerg II
FT
0 – 0
B 1909
B 1909
8/5/2017League #126League #126 · Round 1Esbjerg Atletikstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Esbjerg II63%
×Draw17%
B 190920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg II
2.75
B 1909
1.50

Esbjerg II creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Esbjerg II
2.50
B 1909
1.00

allows per match

Esbjerg II
2.00
B 1909
3.00

finishing

Esbjerg II+0.00on par
B 1909+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg II ↓

B 1909 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Esbjerg II or draw
80%
Esbjerg II or B 1909
83%
Draw or B 1909
37%

Winning margin

Esbjerg II wins by 2+
43%
B 1909 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esbjerg II 1+ goals
93%
Esbjerg II 2+ goals
75%
Esbjerg II 3+ goals
51%
B 1909 1+ goals
78%
B 1909 2+ goals
44%
B 1909 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg II (draw refunded)
76%
B 1909 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

B 1909 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg II attack 2.50 + B 1909 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

B 1909 attack 1.00 + Esbjerg II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Esbjerg II scores more
63%
level
17%
B 1909 scores more
20%

Esbjerg II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Esbjerg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #126: Esbjerg II 0–0 B 1909

Esbjerg II and B 1909 drew 0-0 in League #126 on August 5, 2017.

The match was played at Esbjerg Atletikstadion in Esbjerg.